”Belgrade report
2007”
Sub-chapter
7.2 on transport sector
Draft
1.0
1.
September, 2006
Draft developed by
Peder Jensen, EEA
Peder.Jensen@eea.europa.eu
7.2 Transport
7.2.0
Summary
Transport
is growing more or less in parallel with economic growth across Europe.
Energy consumption
and greenhouse gas emission in SEE and NWE
grow rapidly along with the general growth in transport but also because
of a shift towards road transport, which is less energy efficient than
rail transport. In EECCA emissions have decreased, but less than transport
volumes indicating a reduction in average fuel efficiency.
Emission
of air pollutants cause problems for air quality, especially in cities,
but improved vehicle technology is available, and
is gradually being introduced into the market of the EECCA countries,
albeit with a significant delay compared to the EU countries.
Safety is
a rapidly growing problem in EECCA, but much can be learned from the
EU countries, which have addressed
it successfully over the past decades with both technical and non-technical
means.
7.2.1
Introduction
Transport is
essential for the functioning of modern societies and a well developed
transport system is an aspiration for all societies. It enables the
free movement of people, services and goods. It offers possibilities
for trade, living, leisure, learning and shopping. But transport, as
we know it today, is not sustainable. Economic growth results in an
increase in transport demand, which causes further pressure on the environment.
The European societies are therefore faced with the challenge of reducing
transport’s irreversible damage to the environment and to the health
of people, without loosing the benefits for society and economies.
7.2.2
Transport volumes
7.2.2.1
Freight transport
The collapse
of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the Russian financial crisis in 1998
have both had significant impact on the EECCA countries, because Russia
is an important trade partner. As a result freight transport volumes
declined during the 1990’s (Figure
1). The overall
decrease does however mask a strong decrease in the early 90s followed
by growth, then a small decrease after 98 followed by renewed growth.
Therefore the overall decrease is rather an illustration of the restructuring
of the economy after the collapse of the Soviet Union than it is to
be seen as a trend for the future. Indeed in a study developed by IEA
(Fulton, 2004) road freight transport in EECCA countries is expected
to grow 25% faster than GDP, gradually slowing down to parallel GDP
growth around 2020.
Figure
1: Average annual change in freight transport demand in Europe over
the '90s
Notes: NWE data cover 1993-2003 and applies
to EU-25, Norway and Switzerland. SEE data cover 1993-2002 for rail
(including Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Serbia an Montenegro
and Turkey), 1992-2000 for road (including Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia,
Romania, Serbia and Montenegro and Turkey), 1990-2000 for inland shipping
(including Bulgaria and Croatia) and 1993-2000 for air transport (including
Bulgaria, Croatia, Macedonia, Romania and Turkey). EECCA data cover
1993-2000 for road (excluding Armenia, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan),
1993-2002 for rail (excluding Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan),
1990-1998 for inland shipping (excluding Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan) and 1993-2002 for air transport (excluding
Armenia).
Source:
UNECE, 2006; ECMT, 2006a; EEA, 2006
Freight
transport intensity is defined as the total volume of freight
transport divided by total GDP. The unit is typically given as tonne-km
/ 1000$ GDP.
An economy
based predominantly on industry will typically have a higher freight
transport intensity compared to an economy with a higher share of services,
because service activities tend to generate less transport than the
other activities. A more globalized economy will tend to have higher
freight transport intensity than a more closed economy if the balance
between sectors is the same.
Freight transport
intensity thus measures the combined effect of two different phenomena.
Freight transport
intensity is closely linked to the type of economic activity in a country
while the preference for specific modes is dictated more by the economic
structure. The EECCA region had a freight transport intensity (not including
sea transport and oil pipelines) of 1360 tonne-km/1000$ GDP in 2000,
which is a decline of less than 1% per year since 1993. For the SEE
region it was only 235 and just 185 in NWE. The compound EECCA figure
covers large differences between countries. Kyrgyzstan and Moldova have
freight transport intensities under 500 tonne-km/1000$ GDP, while the
freight intensity in Ukraine, the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan
have it around 1500 tonne-km/1000$ GDP. This reflects the differences
in economic structure of the countries, where the latter have a large
share of heavy industries while the former both have little industry
and at the same time are less integrated in the global economy. Development
in these lesser developed countries is therefore likely to cause a strong
growth in freight transport (significantly higher than the economic
growth) while for the latter countries a more moderate growth is likely
(ECMT, 2006a).
Air freight
transport is an exception to the decline in freight transport in EECCA
in the 90s. It showed a small growth, but from a very low absolute levels.
Rail transport is by far the most important means of transport in EECCA
region (Figure
2). Road transport
plays a limited role. In the SEE region road and rail transport account
for most transport movements followed by inland shipping, which mainly
takes place on the Danube river. Pipeline transport plays a limited
role in the overall picture, but is economically important because of
the role of pipelines in the export of oil and gas.
Figure
2: Modal shares for freight transport in Europe by region (tonne-km)
Notes: Oil pipelines not included. EECCA data
cover Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation and Ukraine
in 2000. SEE data cover Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania in 2001. NWE data
cover EU-25, Norway and Switzerland in 2003.
Source: UNECE, 2006; EEA, 2006
In the NWE
region road transport is by far the most important means of freight
transport (EEA, 2006). With the opening up of the economies in the EECCA
region it is likely that an increased demand for flexibility will be
translated into strong growth in the road transport sector. From the
point of the environment it is important to safeguard the competitive
position of rail transport because of the better environmental performance
of rail compared to road. This requires ensuring that industrial development
and modernisation of the rail system is coordinated.
7.2.2.2
Passenger transport
Passenger transport
demand has declined in the EECCA region, due to the economic restructuring,
which has led to a decrease in GDP (Figure
3). The decline
has affected all modes of transport.
Figure
3: Average annual changes in passenger transport demand in Europe between
1990 and 2004
Notes: NWE data covers 1990-2002 and covers
EU-15, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland, Hungary, Norway and
Switzerland. For air, NWE data covers 1993-2002 and covers EU-25, Norway,
Switzerland and Monaco. SEE data covers 2000-2004 for passenger car
(including Serbia and Montenegro and Albania), 1995-2000 for bus coach
(excluding Albania, Croatia and Turkey), 1993-2002 for rail and 1993-2002
for air (excluding Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina). EECCA data covers
1994-2000 for passenger car (including Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova
and Uzbekistan), 1993-2000 for bus/coach (including Armenia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russian Federation and Uzbekistan), 1993-2002 for
rail transport (excluding Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) and 1993-2002
for air (excluding Armenia).
Source: UNECE, 2006; ECMT, 2006a; EEA, 2006
In the countries
for which data is available, total motorised transport declined with
45% between 1993 and 2000. The share of passenger car transport is very
limited, under 1%, but this figure does not include large countries
such as Russia or Ukraine. The share of air transport increased little,
from 11 to 14%. Rail and bus/coach transport remain the most important
means of transport (Figure
4).
Figure
4: Modal shares in passenger transport in the Europe
Notes: NWE
data covers EU-15, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Poland and Hungary,
Norway and Iceland and cover 2002. SEE data cover Albania and Serbia
and Montenegro and is from 2000. EECCA data covers Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Moldova and Uzbekistan and is from 2000.
Source: UNECE,
2006; ECMT, 2006; TERM 2005b
SEE and NWE
show a growth in transport volumes. This growth is mainly due to increases
in passenger car transport and air transport. Transport volume in other
modes remained constant or showed a decline (EEA, 2006). Passenger car
transport has grown strongly since 1990 in SEE, at the expense of rail
transport. This reflects increased income and a correlated preference
for more flexible private car transport.
People in the
NWE region travelled more than 12 000 km per capita each year (2000).
The EECCA countries report only 800 km per capita, which is a halving
of the 1993 number. If compared on a transport per GDP basis the difference
between the two regions is small. In the EECCA region car ownership
levels are typically around 50-75 cars per 1000 capita, while in the
NWE region car ownership levels are 468 on average (Figure
5). Car ownership
has increased in most EECCA and SEE countries, except for Georgia. Russia
had a car ownership level of 162 in 2003, which is three times higher
than other EECAA countries on average. Because 23 of the 27 million
cars in the EECCA region are listed as Russian, the EECCA average is
greatly affected by Russia. In most EECCA countries, private car transport
still plays a limited role. People cannot afford a car because of the
low income levels. Studies have shown that car ownership is strongly
correlated with GDP. It is therefore to be expected that the passenger
vehicle fleet will grow with the economy over the next decades and thereby
also the impact on the environment (ECMT, 2006b).
Figure
5: Car ownership in Europe (cars/1000 capita)
Note: NWE
car ownership ranged from 252 (Slovakia) to 641 (Luxembourg) in 2003.
Source: UNECE,
2006; World Bank, 2005
7.2.2.3
Infrastructure networks
The available
data on the infrastructure networks in the EECCA is rather sketchy but
assessments by other organisations (e.g. ADB, 2006) indicate a gradual
decay of the network. In the SEE region and the countries that joined
the EU in 2004 a strong growth of the motorway network can be observed,
along with a strong increase of road transport movements. The length
of the railway network has been relatively constant during the 1990’s.
EBRD loans for transport to the EECCA region have mostly financed roads
in recent years. This contrasts with the period before 2000 (Figure
6). This is in
line with EBRD’s mission to facilitate the transition of the formerly
centrally planned economies in Eastern Europe towards market-oriented
policies and to promote private and entrepreneurial initiatives by loans
(OECD, 2000). The increased focus in recent years on road transport
is reflected in increased road energy consumption and recently increased
road freight transport volumes, which suggest the start of a shift towards
road transport.
Figure
6: Distribution of EBRD loans over time in transport projects
Notes: NWE+SEE
does not include EU-15 countries.
Source: EBRD,
2005
7.2.3
Environmental impacts
Decoupling
between energy consumption and transport demand means that energy
consumption does not grow at the same rate as transport demand. This
can be caused by a shift in the efficiency of the vehicles used e.g.
more energy efficient cars, which will tend to ensure lower growth in
energy consumption. It can also be a shift between modes, e.g. from
rail to road transport, which will cause energy consumption to grow
faster than transport volumes because the energy efficiency of road
transport generally is lower than rail.
Decoupling
does not necessarily entail a reduction in emissions because lower energy
consumption per km. may be balanced by growth in transport volumes.
7.2.3.1
Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission
Transport depends
on fossil fuels, in particular oil products, which for the NWE region
accounts for more than 98 % of the transport sectors energy consumption.
Methane and propane gas together with biofuels are the most important
alternatives. The strong reliance on fossil fuels means that emission
of greenhouse gases from transport is closely tied to transport demand.
The energy
consumption in the transport sector in the EECCA region has declined
7 % between 1993 and 2003. Over the same period GDP grew around 5 %,
while transport volumes decreased strongly (data series are not complete
so an exact number cannot be given). This indicates that transport has
become relatively less energy efficient. In the SEE region energy consumption
grew by 31 %, reflecting a strong growth in GDP (38 %). In the NWE region
the growth in energy consumption was 20 % while the growth in GDP was
32 %. Thus transport energy consumption and GDP have decoupled somewhat
both in the NWE and EECCA region, and to a lesser extent in the SEE
region, during the 1993-2003 period.
Figure
7: Transport energy consumption per capita by region (kg oil equivalent/capita)
1993 and 2003
Notes: Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco and
San Marino not included
Source: IEA, 2005
The NWE region
has the highest and fastest growing transport energy consumption per
capita (Figure
7). This is partly
explained by the high passenger transport intensity and partly by the
energy consumption in freight transport. Even though the freight transport
intensity in NWE is low this is balanced by the much higher GDP. The
energy consumption per capita is around 75 % lower in the EECCA region
and 50 % lower in the SEE region. The low level of car ownership and
air transport use in these countries are the main explanations for this.
7.2.3.2
Air pollution
Air pollution
is a major problem in the EECCA countries and the available data shows
that road transport is a significant contributor (OECD, 2000; see also
chapter 2 of this report). In Kazakhstan for example, the maximum allowed
concentration of nitrogen dioxide and dust is exceeded in 20 cities
(UNECE, 2003a). The health guidelines set by the WHO therefore cannot
be met and the same is true for other EECCA countries (UNDP/World
Bank, 2001).
Transport emissions
are expected to remain higher in the EECCA and SEE regions compared
to the NWE region because of the large share of older cars. For example
40% of the vehicles in Bulgaria and 50 % in Macedonia are more than
20 years old, and the maintenance standard for these is low (OECD, 2000).
The use of
leaded fuel has been reduced, but is not yet banned in Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Romania, Serbia-Montenegro (status after separation of the two states
is unknown), Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (UNEP, 2005). In addition there
are rumours of a significant black market for leaded fuel. The emission
of lead may therefore still be significant, albeit decreasing. In addition
to the direct effect on public health, lead makes catalytic converters
ineffective. Leaded fuel therefore represents an obstacle to the introduction
of cleaner technology in the form of better exhaust gas treatment.
7.2.3.3
Transport safety
More than 106
000 people are killed in transport accidents each year in the 3 regions
together (Figure
8), and another
2 million people are seriously injured. Fatality rates (on a per capita
basis) in the EECCA region are around twice as high as in other regions
(more than three times if compared to Sweden, which is the safest) even
though traffic levels are much lower (
Figure
9).
Figure
8: Total number of transport fatalities in Europe (1000’s)
Notes: Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San
Marino, Serbia-Montenegro and Uzbekistan not included
Source: UNECE, 2006b
Figure
9: Number of persons killed in transport per million inhabitants by
region
Notes: Andorra, Liechtenstein, Monaco, San
Marino, Serbia-Montenegro and Uzbekistan not included
Source: UNECE, 2006b; World Bank, 2005
Safety in the
EECCA region has not improved over the last 10 years, and between 2000
and 2003 the number of persons killed in accidents increased by 22 %.
In four countries for which more detailed data is available, accident
rates (on a per passenger–km basis) are more than 15 times higher
then in the NWE region. Russia is amongst the most dangerous countries
in Europe as regards to transport. In Russia 37.000 people are killed
annually in transport (see text box).
Road safety lessons from
Russia for the other EECCA countries
In Russia,
economic active groups aged 15-44, account for more than half of all
road deaths, and for children and young people, road traffic injuries
are the second leading cause of death. Without effective action, road
traffic death and disabling injuries are forecasted to rise globally
with 67 %, rising from the ninth to the third place in global burden
of disease. In Russia, the chance of being killed in traffic is 10 times
greater, per vehicle, than in Germany or the United Kingdom, and in
recent years the situation worsened again after a period of decline.
Pedestrians contribute to almost half of the deaths in Russia.
The Russian
government’s aim is to double national GDP between 2003 and 2012.
The country is in a phase where increase in GDP rapidly increases motorization.
As a consequence, the motorization rate may increase from 162 in 2003
up to 230-250 by 2008. The combination of weak performance goals and
an intrinsically unsafe road system point to a growing road safety crisis,
especially if the growth in motorisation is taken into account. Other
EECCA countries have lower accident rates because of the lower car ownership.
However, growing incomes may increase passenger car mobility strongly.
Therefore early action is needed on road safety in all EECCA countries.
ECMT has published
a peer review on road safety in Russia, which provides helpful elements
for improving road safety. This covers both better legal measures including
enforcement, etc. and technical measures related to vehicles and infrastructure.
Source: ECMT, 2006b
7.2.4
Policy prospects
7.2.4.1
Greenhouse gas emission reduction
Transport energy
consumption per capita and emissions of greenhouse gases are 2-4 times
higher in the NWE region compared to the SEE and EECCA regions (Figure
7). The tools to
address this issue can be grouped into technology measures, user behaviour,
modal balance policy and taxation measures.
The cornerstone
of the technology measures in the EU is a voluntary commitment made
by the car manufactures, where they are to ensure that the average CO2
emission of new passenger cars sold in 2008/2009 will be not higher
than 140 g/km. This is a reduction of around 25% over a 10 year period.
Progress is being monitored annually and the latest monitoring report
shows that progress is slowing down. Furthermore preliminary data for
vehicle sales in 2004 and 2005 shows that progress has almost come to
a halt (Figure
10). Thus only
half of the reduction has been achieved up till the end of 2005. It
therefore appears unlikely that the industry will meet its own target
with less increasing oil prices or changes to vehicle taxation forces
a change in user preferences away from relatively large cars.
Figure
10: Average emissions of new passenger vehicles in EU-15 as reported
under the “ACEA agreement”
Note: The graph shows the reported (solid
lines) average emissions of new vehicles as reported by the three manufacturing
organisations in Korea, Japan and Europa as well as the EU average.
Each curve is extended with preliminary data for 2004 and 2005. The
trend line projection shows that a major change is necessary if 140
gCO2/km is to be achieved by 2008/2009.
Source: EC, 2006; TE, 2006
That user behaviour
can be affected by taxation can be seen by the example of Denmark, where
the annual circulation tax system was modified in 1997 to reflect the
energy efficiency of vehicles. The annual circulation tax now varies
between 22€ and 3400€ based on energy efficiency. Between 1998 and
2005 this resulted in a reduction in average consumption of 15% against
the 10 % achieved in EU as a whole (Danmarks Statistik, 2005).
Countries like
Germany and the Netherlands are preparing to implement eco-driving campaigns
in order to teach road users how to drive as efficiently as possible.
Preliminary investigations have indicated a savings potential of up
to 10 %, but it still needs to be documented in large-scale field-trials
that this can be achieved and maintained. The tools are for example:
right tire pressure, avoid strong accelerations, use the appropriate
gear, etc. but the best effect is achieved if vehicles are at the same
time optimised towards energy efficiency rather than towards speed and
acceleration. Here taxation measures (see Denmark example above) could
play a facilitating role.
Biking in
Belgrade
Bicycles offer
the flexibility of the car without the emissions. They offer exercise
to the user and require less space than cars. Therefore bicycles are
starting to be seen as an element in planning for more sustainable transport
in cities.
Bicycles carry
less than 2 % of traffic in Belgrade at present, but as part of a master
plan for urban development, the city has embarked on a program to construct
more bicycle paths. Initially new paths for recreational biking are
prioritized. The long term target is to achieve a modal share of 10%.
Source: MR,
2006
The European
Union has for some years had a policy on the modal balance in transport.
The aim has been to stabilise the market share of rail. For passenger
transport this has partly been achieved whereas the freight rail sector
is still loosing market shares to road transport. One of the policy
tools have been investment in high speed rail to get rail to compete
with short-medium distance aviation. On some specific routes this has
led to significant reductions in air traffic, but at the same time it
has expanded the size of the “commuter zone” around major cities.
The real saving may therefore be smaller than originally expected.
Reducing transport
volumes is a way to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, but because
of the close link between GDP and transport volumes this is often assumed
to be the route via economic hardship. There are nevertheless plenty
of options for planning that aims to constrain traffic growth. As an
example cities that spread out into suburbs are difficult to serve with
public transport, whereas more compact cities can more easily provide
a good level of service with public transport. The effect of better
planning can be significant, but only on a long time scale and therefore
will not help in meeting the Kyoto targets.
7.2.4.2
Reduction of vehicle emissions and improvement of air quality
Statistics
indicate that road transport has gotten more important in EECCA countries,
and projections foresee that transport volumes on road as well as the
number of vehicles will increase in the next decade. Without additional
measures, the poor air quality situation will get worse, affecting both
the environment and human health. The strategies that have been applied
in the NWE region is gradually being applied both in the SEE and EECCA
region, albeit with some delay. The strategies have focused on a total
phase out of leaded petrol, improvement of fuel quality, reduction of
fuel sulphur content, introduction and strengthening of vehicle emission
regulation and improved vehicle inspection and maintenance.
The phase out
of lead as an anti knocking agent in fuel is on-going but still not
completed, and with an old vehicle fleet there may be reluctance to
phase out lead completely, even though alternatives to lead do exist.
Lead is furthermore a problem because it ruins the effect of catalytic
converters in cars. The introduction of new technology may thus be hampered
by the fuel market. More advanced types of catalysts also require very
low levels of sulphur in the fuel. EU tightened the limit to 50 ppm
in 2005 and will require a maximum of 10 ppm by 2009 (Table
1). Some of the
SEE countries are moving in the same direction, but large differences
exist between countries.
Table
1: Sulphur contents for road transport fuels in some SEE countries
Petrol
Diesel
Sulphur content (ppm)
Sulphur content (ppm)
Bosnia-Herzegovina
150
350
Bulgaria
EU Directive 1999/32,
also 2003/17
Romania
EU Directive 1999/32,
also 2003/17
Serbia
and Montenegro
650-1000 (depending on grade)
350-10000 (depending on grade)
Turkey
150 (2007)
50 (2007)
Albania
150 (imported)
350 (imported), 2000 (national
production)
Croatia
150
350
EU Directive
1999/32 + 2003/17
50 (10 in 2009)
Note: Presently no numbers are available
for EECCA countries, but several reports point to high sulphur levels
as an important environmental problem.
Source: REC, 2005
EURO vehicle
emission standards
The vehicle
emission norms used in the EU have been in effect since 1993 and regulate
the emissions of CO, HC, NOx and PM over a standardised drive cycle.
All vehicle types must be tested in order to obtain a type approval.
Presently a tightening of especially the NOx and PM emissions are under
consideration from around 2010.
The EECCA and
SEE regions have their own car industries. Therefore NWE vehicle technology
such as catalysts will not automatically trickle towards the east. However,
the technology needed is widely available in NWE at low costs. Therefore
the introduction of emission regulation, described as aim in the Kiev
conclusions, may be a cost effective means to reduce pollutant emission
in transport. Over the last years there has been a move to take up some
of the elements of EU emission regulation in form of the EURO emission
standards (Table
2).
Table
2: Adoption of EURO vehicle emission standards by non-EU countries
EURO I
EURO II
EURO III
EURO IV
EU
– passenger cars/light commercial vehicles
1993/1993
1997/1997
2001/2002
2006/2007
Bulgaria
2007/2007
Romania
2006/2007
Turkey
2006/2007
Croatia
2000
Albania
National limits
for CO and HC
Macedonia
National limits
for CO
Bosnia
and Herzegovina
No regulation
Serbia
and Montenegro
No regulation
Belarus
1981 UNECE regulation
Russia
2006
2008
2010
Kazakhstan
Considering the
introduction of EURO norms
Ukraine
(only on imported vehicles)
2005
2008
2010
Note: Table is
based on information received from contact points in the countries.
The adoption
of EURO vehicle emission norms by Russia and Ukraine affects more than
70% of the population of the EECCA region and an even larger share of
the economy and vehicle fleet of the region. It will therefore affect
other countries that have not introduced the standards, because most
manufactures will produce to the new standard.
Inspection
of the vehicle fleet is one of the ways of assuring that vehicles on
the road meet both reasonable safety standards as well as the emission
regulation they were once designed to meet. There is however, evidence
that the inspection system works poorly in several of the EECCA countries.
Because of lack of a consistent dataset it is, however, only possible
to conclude that this should be an area of attention in the coming years.
7.2.4.3
Improvement of transport safety
Transport accidents
represent a high cost to society both in direct economic costs and in
more indirect social costs. With the safety situation worsening significantly
over the last years in the EECCA countries, transport safety needs to
be put at the top of the agenda, especially because car ownership and
transport demand are expected to rise as a result of increased GDP in
the next decade. Specific safety programmes aimed at public education,
improving road infrastructure and vehicle safety, introduction of safety
legislation, amongst others on drink driving and speed observance and
the increase of seat belt use can improve the safety situation in EECCA.
It is also important to ensure the observance of the safety legislation
by random control.
The EU countries
have set themselves the target of halving the number of fatalities between
2000 and 2010. The policies used wary somewhat from country to country,
but better enforcement of speed limits as well as alcohol limits are
among the most effective elements, which has so far led to significant
reductions in fatality rates in spite of strong growth in transport
demand. Also the use of “demerit points”, where minor breaches of
the traffic code (e.g. speed limits, etc.), are added up and potentially
may lead to a revoking of the driving license, has been very effective.
As an example Denmark introduced such a system in 2005 and after 12
month Denmark has now met its 2012 traffic safety target, 6 years ahead
of schedule.
7.2.4.4
Internalisation of external and infrastructure costs
Effective internalisation
policies require a package of instruments. Key priorities for most of
the EECCA countries include the abolition of fuel subsidies and introducing
self-financing of the transport system via fuel taxes, as proposed in
the “Kiev conclusions” (UNECE, 2003b). This could be followed by
the introduction of toll charges and restructuring of registration and
circulation taxes. Currently, transport taxes are mostly of fiscal character
and their environmental impact is limited (OECD, 2003b).
In contrast
to the principle of internalisation, diesel fuel in Azerbaijan and all
fuel in Turkmenistan is sold under the world market price (price before
any taxes) and thus subsidised (Figure
11). In most EECCA
countries fuel prices are too low to cover the direct cost of road maintenance
and construction. Therefore an increase in fuel taxation could be needed
to ensure self financing of the transport sector and more a efficient
use of energy resources.
Figure
11: Petrol and diesel fuel prices in Europe by region (US$, Oct. 2004)
Notes: The red line is the raw cost price
for fuel ($0.27). Oil prices were at 43 dollar at the date of
measurement. Per 5 dollar increase of the oil price per barrel, the
fuel prices get 3 cents higher per litre.
Source: GTZ, 2005
OECD has estimated
the external costs of transport in the EECCA countries and found that
accidents and air pollution provide the highest costs in these countries
(OECD, 2003). In Belarus, the external costs of transport were 16% of
GDP in 1995, in Ukraine 17% and in Moldova 14%. In the SEE countries,
external costs are typical around 10% of GDP. In the EU-15 countries,
external costs are estimated to be around 7% of GDP in 2000 (INFRAS,
2004). This is lower than in EECCA countries, mainly because of the
better safety situation. Passenger transport has the highest share in
external costs, because of the high number of fatalities. The health
and environmental impacts of transport can be expressed in monetary
terms, by calculating indirect monetary costs (suffering, health cost,
lost output etc.). The gap between external costs and variable charges
is higher in the EECCA countries than in NWE, not only because of the
higher external costs but also because these countries have generally
lower charges (i.e. fuel taxes). Therefore based on the general structure
of external costs in EECCA and SEE countries, the OECD recommends to
improve road safety and to reduce air pollution, as these measures provide
greatest benefits to society (OECD, 2003).
Public transport
systems such as tram and metro have a positive impact on both safety
and air quality in cities and overall on the quality of life of urban
dwellers. Therefore, developing competitive urban transport solutions
is a means to fight traffic congestion, air quality problems and improves
transport safety. For this reason, public transport should be a key
priority along with as safe walking and cycling. Economic instruments
may help to provide incentives to change transport behaviour. But for
public transport to become competitive cities needs to be planned and
developed with public transport in mind. Allocation of space for the
necessary infrastructure (rail lines, bus lanes, etc.) is of the utmost
importance, as is the zoning which ensures that activities are not spread
out to an extent where only cars can serve them.
References
ADB, 2006. http://www.adb.org/Carec/transportation.asp
Danmarks Statistik,
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